Rent Projections Require Valid Comparisons: UNDERSTANDING THE NUMBERS

Navigating Post-Pandemic Rental Projections with Accuracy

The vacation rental market in our area experienced an unprecedented boom during the pandemic, with spikes in nightly rates, occupancy, and overall revenue. These were exceptional times, and it's crucial to keep that in mind when evaluating rental income projections or assessing a property's current investment potential — whether you're buying or selling.

Unfortunately, I still see rental estimates from various management companies that are based on pandemic-era figures—data that's now outdated and doesn’t reflect the current rental landscape. Today’s market looks very different. Relying on numbers from three years ago can lead to projections that are no longer realistic or helpful for informed decision-making.

Another common issue is how rental histories are presented on MLS listings. Many display “gross rental” numbers that include additional costs like taxes, cleaning, and parking fees. This inflates the total figure, doesn’t provide a true representation of actual rental income, and makes accurate comparisons more difficult.

Realistic rental projections are essential because buyers often depend on this income to help cover their expenses. When I prepare these numbers for you or your clients, I base them on today’s market conditions—not outdated trends. I carefully review up-to-date data from comparable short-term rentals, pulling from both our current portfolio and wider market comps to create projections that are grounded, achievable, and relevant.

The rental figures I share reflect true gross rent only—no hidden fees or padded numbers—so you can trust that what you're seeing is both honest and useful. Accurate projections help build trust and set realistic expectations, which ultimately leads to long-term success for buyers, sellers, and property owners alike.

Please reach out to me, Kathy Harr, or find more information on our property management program here.